Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Jul 19 2005 04:48 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices jumped at the open, only making a little progress throughout the
day.  Still it was over half-way to being up significantly.  Volume
increased to +10% above average.  By my formula that's an "Accumulation"
day when buyers were showing some interest.

If the volume isn't at least 10% above average I don't think they're
showing enough enthusiasm.  If prices aren't up at least half-way to
being significant, I can't be sure they're really buying.  Floor traders
can move a lot of stock to get out of positions, but they can do it
carefully & gradually, in ways that don't drive prices down.  Some only
consider whether volume was higher than yesterday, by even 100s, and
whether prices were higher or lower.  I get fewer more significant
signals.

Somewhat against my better judgement I've pencilled in a rather sharply
"Rising Bottoms" support line, picking up three bottoms in April & May,
and the complex bottom around the first of this month.  It's only
"support" at the 1205 level today.  I don't really believe it--it's too
steeply rising, but "I charts 'em as I sees 'em".  We've been above my
1214 Resistance Line rather too long to expect an immediate failure.
Old resistance lines have a way of turning into support lines once they
are penetrated.  So I guess our alarm point will be whichever of these
is penetrated first--expect it to be this rising bottoms, as fast as
it's going.  But maybe this will drive the market for a while.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _>__     __|_     _>__     __>_     ___>     07/13
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___>     07/14
 __|_     _>__     __|_     _>__     __<_     ___>     07/15
 _<__     _>__     __|_     _|__     __<_     ___>     07/18
 __|_     __>_     __|_     __>_     __<_     ___>     07/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... If you don't make waves, you're not underway yet.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---
 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

.