Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Jul 11 2005 07:38 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Dennis wasn't so bad, so crude futures began falling, closing below
$59/bbl.  There was also a new round of M&A announcements.  The Street
liked it.  Prices staged a good rally in the morning, sagged a bit
through mid-day, and closed near their highs.  Volume continued its slow
slide, down to just +2% above average.  Average volume is still +10%
above its highs all last year, but it has levelled out some for a couple
weeks, so it's usable again.  On the other hand, the Oscillator has
started to move up again.

The Street may have liked the M&A announcements, but I don't!  I think
companies are trying to BUY earnings--because we know what happens when
you disappoint the Street.  And we should remember Tyco as an example of
companies who tried this tactic, among other shenanigans.  Pleasing the
Street is a no-win game, particularly when you resort to this.  If you
don't have the earnings, trying to merge two operations only compounds
your difficulties.

It's keeping me grumpy, and looking for other ways to invest--perhaps in
foreign and emerging markets funds where companies really are growing
their business.  The problem there is foreign exchange rates.  We
usually don't consider the dollar as a variable.  The dollar hasn't been
particularly strong for a while.  We could have a foreign fund that does
well on its own terms, but if the dollar strengthens our return is
reduced.  Bummer.  Unless the dollar is relatively strong when one
decides on a single investment, this is one place when a long term,
dollar cost averaging strategy is probably the way to go.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     ___|     07/05
 _|__     _|__     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     07/06
 __|_     _|__     __|_     __|_     __|_     ___|     07/07
 ___>     _|__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     07/08
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___|     07/11

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Password: The nonsense word taped to your terminal.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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