Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Jul 01 2005 05:20 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market was modestly higher throughout today, though with some early
uncertainty shown in price fluctuations.  From mid-morning on it was
pretty quiet.  One might think the Street was getting a jump on the
holiday, but if so they left some orders to be filled by the computers
before the close.  There was a tremendous spike in volume just before
the close.  Prices closed up a few points, causing more dithering in my
timing signal, reversing to a uninspiring BUY signal.  Total volume was
subdued, down to -12% below average.  That's called a "divergence",
mutually contradicting signals.  We don't like divergences.

Looks like we can't say much good about the first half.  We're not far
from where we started the year.  I think the most significant thing
about it is something most investors never even saw--the tremendous
spike in volune for about 8 weeks after mid-March, and reprised in June
for a couple weeks.  By the Law of Supply and Demand, the falling prices
tell us that was heavy selling, not buying.  Somebody wanted OUT of this
market.  Were they right?  Is this a good market to be standing away
from?  We've got a second half to find out.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     _|__     _|__     _<__     ___>     06/27
 __<_     _|__     __|_     _|__     _|__     ___|     06/28
 _|__     _|__     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___|     06/29
 _|__     _|__     _|__     __<_     _>__     ___|     06/30
 __|_     _|__     __|_     _<__     __>_     ___|     07/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  06/30/05 S&P:    1191
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Entropy isn't what it used to be. <sigh>
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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