Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Jun 30 2005 06:42 pm

Content-type: text/plain

"Be careful what you wish for, you might get it."  Apparently the Street
wanted the Fed to stop raising rates.  They are raising rates because
the economy is beginning to grow at normal rates, so the Fed needs to
turn off the free-money spigot.  If they stop, that means the economy
has maxed-out.  Is that REALLY what the Street wants?  There is one
other thing to consider: there ain't no such thing as a free lunch.
Who's actually subsidizing those lower rates?

Prices staged minor improvement early in the morning, but shortly began
hugging the line as the day progressed.  As predicted there was some
inital uncertainty, but the Street decided it didn't like the same old
thing.  Prices closed more than half way to significance, but volume
rose to +18% above average.  So they REALLY didn't like more of the
"measured rate" of interest rates.  Guess they wouldn't want to work for
a company that says, "we make money the old fashioned way.  We earn it."

Of course that combination of a non-trivial price drop on much heavier
than average volume is my formula for a "Distributation" day.  And it
was also enough of a price drop to drive my measure of momentum below
the line & popping a SELL signal.  Oh, well, we know not to pay much
attention to dithering of this signal.

Seems to me that in spite of the occasional spikes upward, the best
description of the "mood of the market" remains "grumpy."  Not Bearish
exactly, certainly not Bullish, but on the negative side, more willing
to sell, take the money and run than anything else.  Don't fight it!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     |___     _|__     ___>     _<__     ___>     06/24
 _<__     _|__     _|__     _|__     _<__     ___>     06/27
 __<_     _|__     __|_     _|__     _|__     ___|     06/28
 _|__     _|__     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___|     06/29
 _|__     _|__     _|__     __<_     _>__     ___|     06/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  06/30/05 S&P:    1191
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Every hard-boiled egg is yellow inside.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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