Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Jun 24 2005 06:01 pm

Content-type: text/plain

That's what we need more of!  Screw the preposition.  Who says you can't
end a sentence in a preposition?  Oil traders seem to have gotten the
idea that $60/bbl oil is no problem.  Well it IS a problem and today the
Street found the voice to say so.

Prices slid all day, closing down a little less than yesterday's change,
but still 70% of a significant price change of their own.  Our perennial
question on big movement days is: "Did'ya mean it?"  "You betchum, Red
Ryder."  Volume rose to +33% above average; as you can see below, into
the very high category.  So that's another "Distribution" day.  Hello!?!
You thought I've been kidding all year?  Investors have been dumping
stock.  What do you think THAT means?

As you can also see below, my Momentum/Timing indicator crossed over
into negative territory, and that means "SELL!"  Well, we rode the S&P
Index to a gain of 18pts, so this time it gave us a winner.  I'd tend to
discount any dithering now, in case it whipsawed in indecision.

Although oil prices seem to be spooking the Street lately, I think
that's best thought of as the catalyst, not the cause.  I told you about
my 1214 resistance line weeks ago, and this action is showing all the
technical analysts that it's a "real" thing.  Well, as real as anything
in technical analysis is.  What's real is: investors do NOT feel like
pushing the market into new high territory given the economic conditions
as they are--and frankly, I'm on that side!  (well, OK, not new high as
in higher than the 1527 peak before the Bear Market, but new highs since
"THE BOTTOM".)

Now, if you want to low how it can go--wait and see.  If you believe in
these things, the first support I'd look for might be the 200-day Moving
Average at 1174.  But we've been to 1165 twice this year already, even
1138 once.  It will go as low as it takes for investors to decide, "this
is just as negative as we feel."

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     >___     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/20
 _|__     >___     __|_     _|__     __<_     ___>     06/21
 __|_     _>__     __|_     __|_     __<_     ___>     06/22
 _<__     >___     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___>     06/23
 _<__     |___     _|__     ___>     _<__     ___>     06/24

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  06/24/05 S&P:    1192
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     18

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Steam that blows a whistle never turns a wheel.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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