Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Jun 23 2005 06:33 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices more or less hugged the line until after lunch, then it was a
slip and a stumble.  Closing down 13pts, that's fully enough to be
significant on its own.  But add it with volume that was +12% above a
still elevated moving average, and in anyone's book that's a
"Distribution" day--stock holders were distributing stock to whom ever
would buy.  This WAS a stampede for the door.  As you can see below,
although the Oscillator had begun to change direction, the selling was
so broadly based on the NYSE that it pushed the Oscillator below the
line into negative territory.  That is Bearish confirmation.

So much for pushing above my Resistance Line.  Well, I warned you
several weeks ago to watch out for falling prices, and be ready to
protect yourself--even before you've got a 7% loss in a position.
Remember there was a huge amount of stock sold this spring during the
lows of the year, or should I say "causing".  There were a lot of
investors acting on, "Sell in May and walk away."  I don't think I'd
walk away, but I'd pay attention to another investing aphorism, "Don't
try to catch a falling knife."  This could be a tough summer for the
market, but if we're interested in individual stocks, we should be
paying attention to the relative winners and losers.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     <___     __|_     ___<     __>_     ___>     06/17
 _>__     >___     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/20
 _|__     >___     __|_     _|__     __<_     ___>     06/21
 __|_     _>__     __|_     __|_     __<_     ___>     06/22
 _<__     >___     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___>     06/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/17/05 S&P:    1173
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Who says there were no survivors of Custer's last stand?
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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