Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Jun 16 2005 07:01 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices were above the line modestly all day.  Some more unexciting data
was released.  And that's the way the market closed.  Prices up only
about 30% of what it would have taken to be significant, and volume sank
to -1% below average.  Last year it would have been heavy volume.

There's really no way to know what it really means, but how can we think
about it if we don't compare it to SOMETHING?  Wait a minute...  OK, the
average volume for the past year and a half, since January 2004, has
been 1527Ms, and today's is 1776Ms.  Was it really a high volume day?
Is January 2004 relevant now?  I think the 2200Ms days a couple months
ago are more relevant.  But they're getting less relevant, and the trend
of my moving average is coming down.  Either way, we still can't predict
the future.

I've got a Resistance Line pencilled on my charts at 1214, last year's
highs during the Christmas break.  We're sneaking up on it.  1211 today.
Likewise, there's no way to tell for sure if it's going to affect the
Street.  It's only relevant as a "technical analysis" issue, really a
psychological "self-fulfilling prophecy".  The thing is, these sorts of
things have been found to work time after time.  I'm sure there are lots
of Street stock analysts perfectly aware of it, the question is really
one of confidence.  If they were confident of the market they could just
blow right through it.

OK, let's say they aren't that confident.  There's no evidence of a Bull
on my shoes!  They can still push prices through by restricting the
supply of stock available for those who have to, or really, really, want
to buy stocks.  It's the old law of Supply and Demand--not enough supply
drives prices higher, whether on Wall Street or the corner gas station.
If prices move above it with enthusiasm, i.e. on heavy volume, it
generally means something entirely different than if it happens in
apathy, i.e. normal or lower volume.

Well, we'll see.  In early March prices were pushed up to 1225 on
decreasing volume.  That's NOT Bullish.  It wasn't until a couple weeks
later that volume rose, and drove prices back to 1165.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _<__     __|_     _<__     __<_     ___>     06/10
 __|_     _<__     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/13
 __|_     <___     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/14
 __|_     <___     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     06/15
 __>_     <___     __|_     _<__     __>_     ___>     06/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/17/05 S&P:    1173
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Sure, when...OINK FLAP OINK FLAP...Well I'll be damned!
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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