Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Jun 13 2005 06:48 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Market prices were a couple points below the line for the first hour.
Then they staged a sharp rally up about 5pts above the line.  According
to some news reports it was a reaction to resolution of difficulties at
Morgan Stanley by the retirement of the CEO.  The action after that was
scripted by Paul Simon: "slip-sliding away.  The nearer to your
destination, the more you're slip-sliding away."  Prices stayed in a
fairly tight straight line, to finish the day only a couple points up.
There was a slight bobble when crude futures closed above $55/bbl.
Volume increased a bit, up to -9% below average.

Other news I saw said the Street was just temporizing, waiting for some
economic data being released tomorrow.  That seems to be what the market
action has been telling us for the past few weeks--there's no conviction
on the Street about which direction to go.

Prices reflect current expectations for continued modest growth in the
economy.  If it keeps muddling along then we might expect prices to
proceed in a slightly rising trading range.  It's unlikely the macro-
economic situation will change so positively that we'd see a major rally
resembling 2003.  Somebody carefully dumped a lot of stock this spring,
but they didn't cause a major correction.  I'm concerned that no good
news could encourage more investors to do some significant selling.  I
could lose some money in the market!  Rule 1: Don't lose big.  Rule 2:
Don't forget Rule 1.

What I expect is the Street to manufacture some hype, both positive and
negative.  It makes money on market volatility, so I expect them to try
to stampede us hither and yon.  So I'm going to watch carefully, try to
avoid giving in to the hype and see beyond to the truth of the matters,
and try to avoid losing ground.  Let's not forget, expectations for the
year going in were for single digit gains.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     __|_     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/07
 _<__     __|_     __|_     _<__     __<_     ___>     06/08
 __|_     __|_     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/09
 _|__     _<__     __|_     _<__     __<_     ___>     06/10
 __|_     _<__     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/17/05 S&P:    1173
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Look on every exit as being an entrance somewhere else.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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