Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Jun 07 2005 06:42 pm

Content-type: text/plain

"Stock prices closed little changed."  If that's what you heard then you
need a better source of news.  "And now for the REST of the story," as
the other Paul says.

GM announced it was going to lay off about 25,000 people.  Investors
thought that "cost reduction" might keep GM out of bankruptcy--assuming
it can also come up with new models people really want to buy.  GM rose
on the news.  But that's what I call "lying by omission".  You can't
tell what that means unless you know more than most of the news stories
were telling you.  That amounts to 23% of their workforce.  Is that good
news, or capitulation?  If it's good news for GM, is it good news for
America?

Greenspan recorded some comments for a meeting in China.  He said that
an interest rate neutral position by the Fed didn't necessarily mean
the stock market had to fall.  Apparently investors wanted to take that
as a guarantee.  They seemed to overlook the qualification.  He seemed
to think economic growth could continue at these rates.  One of the
other Fed Governors reiterated that they're not done yet.

During the first hour prices staged a steady rally up about 10pts,
decided that was enough and held that level until after lunch.  Then it
began slipping away.  There was a temporary glitch for a while at 2PM,
apparently unconnected with the oil market closing this time.  (It lost
a bit over 4 bits.)  And by the close, it had, err, frittered away all
of its gains.  It closed down about a point, and volume increased up
significantly to -1% below average.

What we need to notice is that the market can't hold on to its gains.
This isn't the first day this has happened.  And when that's going on,
day traders might find some plays, but investors looking for Bull
Markets ought to think twice.  Maybe three times.  There is no sign of
confidence in the market.

If the economy continues as Greenspan suggests, don't forget, that's
already been factored in to the market.  The Street looks out 6-9 months
in the future, buys if it likes what it sees, and that drives prices up
well ahead of the facts.  What we're seeing is the Street's uncertainty
about the future.

My attitude is still to be very conservative with investment strategies.
This isn't the 90's anymore.  This isn't the time for risky investments.

And that's what they DIDN'T tell you!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___>     __>_     06/01
 __|_     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     06/02
 _|__     __>_     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/03
 __|_     __>_     __|_     <___     __|_     ___>     06/06
 _<__     __|_     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     06/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/17/05 S&P:    1173
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... ntEorpy sI wayAls crInseasing
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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