Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jun 01 2005 04:30 pm Content-type: text/plain The Institute for Supply Management released more data on manufacturing today. The bottom line was manufacturing dropped more than expected to 51.4, where 50 is the line between expansion and contraction. Bad news, right? Well, no. The market jumped 10pts in the first hour or so, then added another 5, where it more or less flattened out. The Street was doing another of it's perverse "bad news is good news" analyses. They saw that the portion which reflected prices paid for materials was nearly flat, implying no inflation, implying the FOMC might not keep hiking interest rates. The President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank said as much. Still, oil went about $54/bbl, and there was afternoon profit taking. The market closed up about 10pts, but, wait for it, volume slowed to -7% below average, lower over 100Ms from yesterday. Bull markets require enthusiastic buyers, and they just aren't to be seen. So over all, it was one of those days when we were happy to see some green numbers in our portfolio, but didn't get excited that the Bull is back. One could well believe this, and some other recent action, shows the Street is trying to make something out of not much, that they're itching to move this market higher. That is the sort of thing I look for. But they could as well be out-foxing themselves. Their rationales are tenuous. The cause and effect relationships they envision have more than one step and all of them have to work right. I prefer the simpler approach. The data we've seen that the economy is growing very slowly, that employment and wages are concerning consumers, is NOT good news as I see it. But I'm not taking a dogmatic stand on it. I'm watching the market numbers. Market movements aren't a matter of opinion. What they mean, how long it's going to go on, THOSE are opinions. Whether my line at 1214 means anything is even a matter of conjecture. But the closing price on Jan 3rd was 1202, the closing price today was 1202--and we thought this was a good day. Those are facts. Seems to me anybody claiming the economy is fine, the stock market is nothing to worry about, is blowing smoke. In my opinion. ;-) Price Vola- Momen- Volume Oscil- Summ. Change tility tum lator Index -__+ -__+ -__+ -__+ -__+ -__+ _|__ __>_ __|_ _<__ __<_ __>_ 05/25 __|_ __>_ __|_ _<__ __|_ __>_ 05/26 __|_ __|_ __>_ <___ ___| __>_ 05/27 _|__ __|_ __>_ _<__ __|_ __>_ 05/31 __|_ __|_ __>_ _<__ ___> __>_ 06/01 Timing Signals: I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're fun to watch. If I did though, well, I might use something like this. (Be warned!! It tends to whipsaw around signal points!) Last Signal: BUY Date: 05/17/05 S&P: 1173 Winner or Loser: tbd By: tbd See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy study at my website(s): http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Press -- to continue ... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .