Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu May 26 2005 06:39 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Headline: "Q1 GDP a strong 3.5%."  Be wary of stories like that!  Was it
"strong"?  Or did the reporter have an "agenda"?  This was a revision up
from an earlier 3.1%, primarily because the trade deficit was smaller
than initial estimates.  In raw terms, 3.5% isn't particularly "strong".
Among other data in the report was the weakening of consumer confidence.
My interpretation of the data reported in the story didn't seem so
"strong".

In any event, even though the number was expected by Street economists,
the Street made a little something of the good news, but just a little.
Prices rose in the first hour and held onto a decent gain, 60% of a
significant change.  "Did ya mean it?"  Well, no, volume fell back to
-18% below average.  Realizing the average got pulled significantly
higher by the heavy March-April selling, the day to day comparison with
yesterday shows volume was -4% below yesterday.  So I'd discount the
price change because of this "divergence".  Fortunately the moving
average trend for volume has rolled over and started downward.  In a
month or so it should be useful again.

So it doesn't seem to me "strong" was an appropriate choice of words.
The Street also didn't seem to agree if we look at the buying
enthusiasm, though the evening news doesn't consider volume and will
continue the misrepresentation.  They'll just talk up the gain.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     _>__     __|_     _>__     __>_     __>_     05/20
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _|__     ___|     __>_     05/23
 __|_     __>_     __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     05/24
 _|__     __>_     __|_     _<__     __<_     __>_     05/25
 __|_     __>_     __|_     _<__     __|_     __>_     05/26

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/17/05 S&P:    1173
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Life is sexually transmitted and terminal. Always.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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