Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon May 16 2005 04:29 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices moved steadily higher all day, closing up 90% of the way to a
significant change.  "Did ya mean it?"  No, not really.  Volume was down
to -9% below average, and by far the largest volume came in the last few
minutes as the floor traders squared their books.

There are different ways stock prices move.  They might move higher in a
"feeding frenzy" rally, where buyers are willing to pay any price to get
the stock they want.  Sometimes this is precipitated by a "short-
squeeze".  But stock holders can also push prices higher by withholding
supply, forcing buyers to pay up or go without.  We can tell the
difference by the volume.  And we must never confuse the two!  The first
is Bullish, the second is Bearish.

Knowing the difference, we can also tactically use the second to "sell
into strength".  Momentary price strength in a weak market is a perfect
excuse to sell and take some profit or cut some losses.  In the
emotional battle between greed and fear, amateur investors have a
natural tendency to hold when prices seem to be going up, hoping they
continue.  Why isn't that a good time to sell?  "Bird in the hand..."

Frankly, I think this is a good time for active investors, "Momentum
Players", to stand aside and let the Dollar Cost Averagers accumulate
some lower cost shares.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _<__     _|__     _|__     __|_     __>_     05/10
 __|_     _<__     __|_     _<__     __|_     __>_     05/11
 _<__     _<__     _|__     _<__     __<_     __>_     05/12
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __<_     _<__     __>_     05/13
 __|_     _<__     _|__     _<__     __<_     __>_     05/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  05/12/05 S&P:    1159
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -12

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... I talked to GOD yesterday - AND HE'S PISSED!
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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