Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu May 12 2005 08:08 pm

Content-type: text/plain

It's said discouraging earnings projections by Walmart at the open drove
the market down.  But that was known by 8AM and the market hugged the
line until after lunch.  Only in the afternoon did it all come apart,
but that it did.  Price fell 90% of being a significant change, and
volume increased nearly 10%, though still -2% below the trailing moving
average.  I mention "trailing" because the moving average has been
dragged exceptionally high by the typically high volume over the past
couple months.  That's something to remember for the next couple months,
and I'd tend to pay more attention to the +10% day over day increase
than the -2% compared to levels of the past months.  So I'd consider
this a "Distribution" day in effect, even is it's going to take a while
for my formula to catch up.

Some said it was caused by penetration of technical support levels, but
that only explains why sellers "piled on" after prices fell below those
levels, not why the fall began.  My technical support line on my charts
was 1160, above the close.  It goes back to the highs of early last
year, but I don't have any support lines on my charts I feel strongly
about.

I'd say the good news is oil closed under $50/bbl.

So the falling price forced my timing signal to reverse itself yet again
to Sell.  Well, I discounted yesterday's Buy anyway.  We're about to
penetrate the prices 200-day moving average, again, and that's very
Bearish, that we couldn't stay above it.  I've said it before, I'm
saying it again, protect yourself!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     __<_     __|_     _>__     ___>     __>_     05/05
 __>_     _<__     __|_     _|__     ___>     __>_     05/09
 _|__     _<__     _|__     _|__     __|_     __>_     05/10
 __|_     _<__     __|_     _<__     __|_     __>_     05/11
 _<__     _<__     _|__     _<__     __<_     __>_     05/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  05/12/05 S&P:    1159
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -12

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... This is NOT Burger King.  You do not get it YOUR way.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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