Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon May 09 2005 03:40 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The first two hours prices hugged the line, then I guess the news of yet
another merger started prices rising.  They closed over half way to
being significantly changed.  Don't get your hopes up.  Volume increased
a little, but was still -12% below average.  So with less supply of
stock on the table, buyers had to bid it up to get it.

OK, so it's May.  Do we sell and walk away?  Of course, that really
depends on what your strategy is.  Dollar Cost Averagers with miles to
go certainly don't.  Even if this turns onto a "difficult" summer on the
Street, they'll be accumulating cheaper shares.  The question is only
relevant for those of us who have active portfolios, most likely the
Momentum Players among us.

If that were me, especially considering the year so far, and no bright
lights I can see ahead, I'd put my portfolio into a low risk position.
I wouldn't be holding anything I wasn't in deep profit.  The 7% Solution
wouldn't be an issue, because anything that close would be in cash.
Knowing the perversity of the Street with rules and precedents, I also
wouldn't be _counting_on_ the market sagging!  No shorts this summer.
I'd have the 10% or so of my speculative "mad money" at hand for short
term momentum trades.  Again the 7% Solution wouldn't be at issue,
because I'd have my finger always near the trigger in case my timing was
a bit off.  I'd take what the Street would give me, but not fight for
it.

        "My momma, she once told me, 'Don't you love you a woman.
        Just take what they may give you, and give them what you can.
        And you can sing in the sunshine.  You'll laugh every day.
        You'll sing in the sunshine, and be on your way.'"

OK, it was a "girl song" so I had to do a bit of gender reversal, but
that's about how I'd handle the summer.  I wouldn't love what the Street
loves, but I'd go to the party and not over-stay my welcome.  The other
90% of my money would be safe and conservative, remembering what
Greenspan said about those in bond funds being "desireous of losing
money."

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     __|_     _|__     _>__     __>_     _|__     05/02
 _>__     __|_     _|__     __>_     __>_     __|_     05/03
 ___>     __<_     __|_     __>_     ___>     __>_     05/04
 _>__     __<_     __|_     _>__     ___>     __>_     05/05
 __>_     _<__     __|_     _|__     ___>     __>_     05/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/04/05 S&P:    1176
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Speed costs money. How fast do you want to go?
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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