Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu May 05 2005 04:07 pm

Content-type: text/plain

It was going well enough until lunch time, then S&P downgraded the
corporate bonds of GM & Ford to "junk" status, and the market fell
apart.  There was a little improvement late in the session, but too
little, too late.  S&P cited GM's management ineptitude and Ford's
reliance on big engine SUV's in an era of higher fuel costs.  We
shouldn't be surprized at the Market's reaction--we've consistently seen
Bullish sentiment is a yard wide and an inch deep.  So prices closed
down modestly, but volume also fell to -4% below average.

If we don't reach 1190 right soon, you can kiss the idea of a Bullish
"inverse head and shoulders" formation goodbye.  Still, as you can see,
the Oscillator is very positive.  So there has been a quickening rise
in the Advance-Decline line recently.  That could provide a broad base
to a technical recovery.

I wouldn't get Bullish unless I saw a major shift in the economic
outlook.  After all, I think S&P could rag most companies for management
ineptitude in so far as they're listening to the Street's short-term
judgements of meeting or beating their quarterly bottom line numbers.
When it comes to the consumer confidence and consumption driving the
economy, the disparity among American workers continues to increase and
become "bimodal".  It is very similar to when the major indices are
climbing and the Oscillator is falling--the "pyramid" in the market is
getting tall and skinny--the market is susceptible to toppling over in a
strong wind.  I think the whole country is going that way.  We've lost
our wealth producing manufacturing base.  Wall Street is "making money"
with M&A, no more than "rearranging the deck chairs".

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ___|     __>_     _|__     __>_     __<_     _|__     04/29
 __>_     __|_     _|__     _>__     __>_     _|__     05/02
 _>__     __|_     _|__     __>_     __>_     __|_     05/03
 ___>     __<_     __|_     __>_     ___>     __>_     05/04
 _>__     __<_     __|_     _>__     ___>     __>_     05/05

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  05/04/05 S&P:    1176
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... REAL programmers type C:COPY CON > PROGRAM.EXE
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