Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Apr 22 2005 07:04 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market was basically flat, within a range below the line down to
-5pts below, until 2PM again.  Coincidentally (?) when the crude oil
market closed.  Then it dropped -17pts, regaining about 10pts just
before the close.  Volume fell to +4% above average.

I heard somebody suggest yesterday's action was "short covering".  The
CBOT tracks "open interest" in futures, and all it takes is looking at
how many shares are in "short position", if you've got access to the
data (which I don't).  Is that reasonable?  Yes, it's possible.  Traders
short stocks when they expect prices will fall.  Then they "cover their
shorts" by buying the stock at (hopefully) lower prices in the future.
They don't want to be "caught short" if prices are expected to rise.  If
the Street had been aggressively shorting stocks in recent weeks, even
perhaps contributing to the falling prices, they might decide that a
drop of -75pts on the S&P in about 6 weeks might be far enough to
stretch their luck.  It doesn't necessarily mean they think prices are
going to rally.

Since I don't have the data, I won't venture an opinion.  Over the past
several weeks the Street seems to me to have been very jumpy, likely to
sell more than buy when uncertain.  I won't argue.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _<__     _|__     04/18
 __<_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     _<__     04/19
 <___     __>_     _|__     __>_     _>__     _<__     04/20
 ___>     __>_     _|__     __>_     __>_     _<__     04/21
 _>__     __>_     _|__     __>_     __>_     _<__     04/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/08/05 S&P:    1181
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Wedlock, what a curious term.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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