Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Apr 19 2005 07:17 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices were above the line all day again.  They closed just over half-
way to being significantly higher.  Volume contracted again, to +13%
above average.

Now, by my formula that makes it an "accumulation" day.  But I often
reserve judgement whether I accept these signals.  Market analysis can't
be reduced to simple numerical formulas.  Making them more complex
doesn't help, psychology plays such an important role.  But even simple
formulas can be helpful alerts.

This time I don't like the fact that volume decreased.  So while
accumulation days are typically bullish signals, I'm not buying it.  My
interpretation is: compared to the past few weeks stock holders were
more willing to hold today, forcing buyers to pay up for what they
wanted, but buyers were restrained and not overly enthusiastic.  And if
that's right, it suggests continued conservative behavior on our part.

So it's "better than a poke in the eye", but nothing to get excited
about.  Like I said yesterday, "we were due."  Call this a normal
snap-back up to the 200-day Moving Average from an over-sold condition,
and continue with your picnic. I really doubt there's a bull in this
field.  (It's not a Moooving Average, eh?)

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 <___     <___     _|__     __>_     _<__     __|_     04/13
 _<__     <___     _|__     ___>     _<__     __|_     04/14
 <___     _>__     _|__     ___>     <___     _|__     04/15
 __<_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _<__     _|__     04/18
 __<_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     _<__     04/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/08/05 S&P:    1181
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Och.... is it dead yet, laddie?
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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