Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Apr 15 2005 07:47 pm

Content-type: text/plain

"Meltdown", does that pretty much cover it?  Prices dropped 1.5 times
what would be "significant", and volume jumped yet again to +44% above
the moving average, which has itself been skyrocketing--from about
1550Ms a month ago to around 1870Ms today!

In any event prices decisively fell below the 200-day Moving Average,
and that is going to be widely perceived as a Bearish Signal by
professional investors.

What else can I say but, "I told you so"?  Even in the face of
occasional one-day miracles, I've been skeptical of the Bullish scenario
all year.  Frankly, I think those were based on measures of economic
growth which focus on GDP that are wrong!  Analysts have too long
ignored the two-edged nature of productivity growth.  Certainly it makes
the bottom line look good, but it ignores the long-term negative impact
of off-shoring and unemployment.  American society, as the Victorian
British society before us, has been unable to adapt to the change.  You
were of a generation which hadn't yet abolished History from the school
curriculum, PAY ATTENTION!  You should remember what George Santayana
said, "Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
And if you don't understand how that should illuminate your investing
strategies, well, I'll change what I might have said, and just remind
you of 2000-2002.  And perhaps I'd better leave it at that--I feel a
rant coming on.

mutter, mutter, mutter

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _<__     _|__     _>__     _|__     __|_     04/11
 __|_     _<__     _|__     __>_     _|__     __|_     04/12
 <___     <___     _|__     __>_     _<__     __|_     04/13
 _<__     <___     _|__     ___>     _<__     __|_     04/14
 <___     _>__     _|__     ___>     <___     _|__     04/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/08/05 S&P:    1181
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... How cheerfully on the false trail they cry!
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---
 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

.