Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Apr 08 2005 06:58 pm

Content-type: text/plain

My timing signal should have listened to me yesterday.  Today's market
chart was interesting because it showed 5 obvious equally spaced stair-
steps through the day, all descending.  Prices closed lower, about 10pts
where just over 13pts is now significant, pushing the momentum indicator
below the line--signalling a Sell.  I'm not terribly excited about this
signal either.  Volume decreased to -7% below average, so there was
certainly no stampede for the door.

Over approximately the past three weeks as prices sank and recovered in
a rough U-shaped pattern, volume rose and fell in mirror-image.  That's
a Bearish formation, prices falling as volume rises, and rising as
volume sinks.  It would have been Bullish if they'd had the same path in
lock-step, volume rising as prices rise, sinking as they fall.

Still, some of my other indicators and charts show some improvement.
So, while I tend to think it's more likely prices will fall, hunting for
some support level, there is some possibility that they could return to
test my resistance level at 1214-1225.  Even supposing that could
happen, right now I have to ask myself if they're likely to penetrate
it, the Bullish scenario, or be turned back, strengthening the apparent
resistance.  From my impression of the general trading action, the
second seems far more likely in this unlikely supposition.  And THAT
would create the appearance of yet another Horizontal Trading Range
that we've seen before.

Trying to predict the market is an exercise in futility, at least in the
short term.  I'm just trying to interpret the recent market action in
terms of action we've seen before.  Sometimes these things influence
investors and create "self-fulfilling prophecies".  What I can say is it
appears to me a conservative strategy is a good choice.  If you want a
Bull Market again, I suggest you remember, "That was then, this is now."

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     __>_     _|__     ___>     _>__     __<_     04/01
 __|_     __<_     _|__     __>_     _>__     __<_     04/05
 __>_     __<_     _|__     __>_     __>_     __<_     04/06
 __>_     _<__     __|_     __>_     __>_     __<_     04/07
 _>__     _<__     _|__     __>_     __>_     __<_     04/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  04/08/05 S&P:    1181
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Of course, I could be wrong ..... Naaah!
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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