Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Apr 07 2005 05:38 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices had another nice day.  Except for a bobble in the hour or so
preceeding the close of crude oil trading, it was up all day.  (Crude
prices fell, that's probably the main reason--arbitrage between the oil
and stock markets.)  As you can see below, it caused the momentum to
cross the line, popping a BUY from my timing signal.  But as you can
also see, the trend could be more positive.  Today's volume rose a bit,
but was still only +7% above average.

I'm still more than a little suspicious about any Bull Market signals
here.  We were on a tear for a couple of weeks of high volume around the
end of the quarter.  It might have been some fund "window-dressing", but
it continued for a couple days into this month.  It was just too far out
of character for the way the market has been trading for the past 16
months--there's been nothing like it.  Prices certainly didn't react
positively on the volume, indicating there were plenty of sellers
feeding the supply.  Now, to be sure, the market hasn't been happy about
the oil/distillate speculation.  The trading pits are looking forward
into the summer driving season, and that's still too far off to know how
it's going to affect demand and the tourist enconomy.  There's little
reason to be optimistics on that account.

They're going to have to drag me, kicking and screaming, to this party.
If that's what it is.  I don't see the punch bowl, no guacamole and
chips.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     __>_     _|__     ___>     _>__     __<_     04/01
 __>_     __<_     _|__     ___>     _>__     __<_     04/04
 __|_     __<_     _|__     __>_     _>__     __<_     04/05
 __>_     __<_     _|__     __>_     __>_     __<_     04/06
 __>_     _<__     __|_     __>_     __>_     __<_     04/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/07/05 S&P:    1191
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Yeah, but what's the speed of DARK?
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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