Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Mar 31 2005 08:03 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Trading was quite unique today.  Both the DJIA & NASDAQ were negative
all day, but the S&P oscillated on either side of the line, but clung to
it.  Prices closed little changed, but volume rose to +29% above
average.  When heavy volume like that isn't able to move prices upward,
the technical signal is typically negative.

The 30-day moving average of NYSE volume is now above 1700Ms, and it was
never even 1600Ms going back to January 2004.  During the 28 trading
days between Feb 7th and March 17th the average volume was 1548Ms, with
a standard deviation of 113Ms.  About 2/3 of the time volume would be
expected to be between 1548-113Ms and 1548+113Ms (1434-1661).  In the 9
days since March 18th the average has been 2237Ms, with a standard
deviation of 210Ms, (1817-2237).  Those do not overlap.  Things changed.

The thing investors should be aware of, whether in the future prices go
higher or lower, is that sudden consistently high volume indicates there
is serious portfolio rearrangement going on by large institutional
investors.  I think it's most reasonable to assume they're expecting a
change in the investing environment, and are trying to align their
portfolios with their expectations.  Our problem is we don't know what
they're expecting, they won't tell us.  We have to make our own
judgements, hope we're right, but have rules of our own to correct our
expectatioms as we go forward.  But, now, what portfolio rearrangements
of our own would we want to make?  It's time to get it done!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     __>_     _|__     __>_     <___     __<_     03/24
 __|_     __>_     _|__     __>_     |___     __<_     03/28
 _|__     __>_     _|__     ___>     |___     __<_     03/29
 ___>     __>_     _|__     ___>     _>__     __<_     03/30
 _>__     __>_     _|__     ___>     _>__     __<_     03/31

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/15/05 S&P:    1198
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... No. Try not. Do, or Do not. There is no try.        Yoda
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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