Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Mar 28 2005 06:04 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market popped higher right at the open and just as fast levelled out
for most of the day.  Now when we see that, we need to consider the
Street's econometric models.  Our markets were closed Friday, but not
the rest of the world.  We had to play catch-up.  Not only that, oil
prices were lower, reputedly on "profit-taking".  When those were
factored into the Street's formulas, they figured stocks were worth
more, at the open.

Now there was one glitch--after that they went basically nowhere, ever
so slowly slipping lower.  During the last hour prices went into a nice
even slide.  They still managed to close above Thursday's closing price
modestly.  Volume remained about the same, +7% above average.

You may have noticed I've been grumpy about the market's behavior all
year.  What you aren't seeing is some of the detail in my charts.  The
Summation Index is derived from the momentum of the Advance-Decline
line, so it's quite artificial.  That's not to say it isn't useful to
track the general direction of the entire NYSE over the past several
months, just that it's hard to relate to observations.  In early
December it was over 5,000.  Now it's less than 1,000.  Even though the
S&P 500 hasn't dropped so much, the drop in the Summation Index tells us
there has been a determined sell-off in the market since then.  We
should be paying attention to that!  Of cautionary note, the Summation
Index can go as negative as it does positive.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _>__     _|__     __>_     |___     __<_     03/21
 _<__     __>_     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     03/22
 __<_     __>_     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     03/23
 _<__     __>_     _|__     __>_     <___     __<_     03/24
 __|_     __>_     _|__     __>_     |___     __<_     03/28

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/15/05 S&P:    1198
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Stop it!  Now take your tagline and go to bed.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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