Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Mar 23 2005 06:50 pm

Content-type: text/plain

"I've got a BAD feeling about this."  The market was all over the Street
today, and as in the past few days there was divergence between the NYSE
& OTC.  The S&P split the difference, and closed essentially unchanged.
But volume was +40% above average, off my chart!  About 15% of all
shares, nearly 20% of average volume, traded in the last 15 minutes!
Only the floor traders can move that much volume in the last few
minutes.

When that much trading happens but prices don't move, red lights and
klaxon horns should go off.  It certainly isn't a Bullish indication of
buyers willing to pay up for stock.  And it isn't as Bearish as it was
yesterday when we had a "distribution" day.  But I think it's probably a
follow-through of yesterday's distribution.

If we get that snap-back I mentioned yesterday, I wouldn't be getting
suckered into it.  I think it'll just be the floor specialists playing
games to unload what they had to buy today--that's their job.  I'd sell
into the strength.  I'm expecting bounces, but overall continued market
weakness and lower prices.  With the news as it has been, I just don't
see reason for active investors to get excited about investing.  CYA!
Unless you're a Dollar Cost Averager, of course.  You should happily
suck up the cheaper shares and increase your accumulation, but don't
forget how you're going to play your end-game.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _>__     _|__     __<_     |___     __<_     03/17
 _<__     _>__     _|__     ___|     <___     __<_     03/18
 _<__     _>__     _|__     __>_     |___     __<_     03/21
 _<__     __>_     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     03/22
 __<_     __>_     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     03/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/15/05 S&P:    1198
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... A waist is a terrible thing to mind.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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