Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Mar 22 2005 06:32 pm

Content-type: text/plain

YEEOWWW!!!  The Fed raised rates another quarter point, and said they
expected to continued the "measured pace".  That was all as the Street
had expected.  But they also mentioned the "I" word, inflation.

Until the announcement came out the market had a good day going.  Prices
rose steadily.  But this time there was little indecision about the
interpretation--prices dropped like a rock!  Volume also increased
significantly, and spiked in the last few minutes.  Prices dropped -90%
of the way to being significant, and volume skyrocketed to +34% above
average!  We haven't seen that much trading in over a year, before 2004.
There's no question this was a "distribution" day.  Sellers dropped a
load and stampeded for the door.

Now, we've dropped just over 50pts in a straight line.  I wouldn't be
surprized to see a "snap-back rally".  That's normal.  But it isn't
significant.  We MIGHT also see some support around 1160, the highs from
January 2004.

You know what the problems are: twin major deficits, Afghan & Iraqi
commitments for the duration, energy prices, the war on terrorism,
rising interest rates, etc.  I think these are enough to keep Main
Street out of the market, and Wall Street nervous.  My advice is be
conservative and defensive in your strategies.   Watch and wait for
definite, positive improvements.  And don't let your politics get in
your way.  Remember, other investors may not share your politics, and
they can influence prices.

Just remember the #1 Rule of investing:  Don't lose big!  Learn how to
SELL!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     _|__     __<_     <___     __<_     03/16
 __<_     _>__     _|__     __<_     |___     __<_     03/17
 _<__     _>__     _|__     ___|     <___     __<_     03/18
 _<__     _>__     _|__     __>_     |___     __<_     03/21
 _<__     __>_     _|__     ___>     <___     __<_     03/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/15/05 S&P:    1198
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Klein bottle for rent. Inquire within.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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