Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Mar 21 2005 04:14 pm

Content-type: text/plain

"What's the matter, bunky?  You say your portfolio has too many losers,
that it's upside down and underwater?  Is that what's troubling you,
bunky?"

What's your problem?

Are you buying the wrong stocks?  Are you buying stocks whose day in the
sun was last year or five years ago--even if you bought them cheap,
they're going nowhere?  Are you buying stocks the Street doesn't love,
and hasn't for a long time?  Have you ever said, "but it's a GOOD
company"?

Are you buying stocks at the wrong time?  Are you buying stocks the
Street DOES love, and has for months, right when they peaked?  Or are
you buying stocks that keep making small, abortive, head-fake moves,
quickly running up, say, 10% above their support level, only to turn and
sink back to it, leaving you with a succession of 7% losses rather than
10% gains?

Are you marrying your stocks?  Do you hold on to your faded flowers,
hoping they'll come back to life?  Are you holding on to now cheap
stocks, below $10/s, that major institutional investors cannot buy,
providing no impetus to run the prices up?

Are you selling at the wrong time, or not at all?  Are you unable to
take your profits, riding them over the hill and back down again?  Do
you cut your losses short and let your profits run, or the other way
around?  Can you strictly apply the 7% Solution, or are you fatefully
enamoured of your buying decisions?

Worst of all, do you not know what your problem is?  Do you never do a
post-trade analysis to discover what you did right or wrong, that signal
you should have seen, or should have paid attention to?

What's your problem?

The market jumped off a cliff this morning, following a nice parabolic
path downward during the first hour.  After a couple leaden bounces, and
the crude oil pits closing off their highs, it gained a little back, but
still closed down on higher volume, +18% above average, that has no
excuses today.  The price change at the close wasn't quite enough for my
formula to call it a "distribution" day, but that's how I'm reading it.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     _|__     _<__     |___     ___<     03/15
 _<__     _|__     _|__     __<_     <___     __<_     03/16
 __<_     _>__     _|__     __<_     |___     __<_     03/17
 _<__     _>__     _|__     ___|     <___     __<_     03/18
 _<__     _>__     _|__     __>_     |___     __<_     03/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  03/15/05 S&P:    1198
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Our Lady of Blessed Acceleration, don't fail me now!
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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