Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Mar 14 2005 05:18 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market was blah until about the last hour, when it rallied sharply.
Volume was sharply higher too, especially right into the close.
However, be careful who's charts you look at--Yahoo Finance lost a big
chunk of the intraday data--"straight-lined" the price and clumped the
volume, to really distort their charting!

At the close prices were up modestly, but volume shrank slightly, still
around -8% below average.  The price improvement caused my timing signal
to dither and reverse itself, signalling Buy, now.  Since what evidence
of Bullishness there was, was only in the last hour (most likely on some
news, though I didn't see what), I'd ignore that signal.  The recent
trend in volume has turned negative, and I don't believe in rallies on
declining volume, i.e. no enthusiasm.  The Oscillator is also negative
and trending downward, and I don't believe in rallies which aren't
supported by the broad market also advancing.  Nope, I don't believe
this dog can hunt.  But that's just my opinion.

I could change my mind though, if the market shows me some strength.
Just looking at my price charts, since the January low technicians would
point to a sequence of higher lows (1177 1/13, 1184 2/22, 1200 3/11) and
higher highs (1189 1/31, 1210 2/15, 1225 3/7).  That's typically a
Bullish trend.  But I think it's awfully short term, and ignores the
price to volume comparison as well as the tendency of the Oscillator to
be negative since Thanksgiving.  We'll see.  I won't argue with the
tape, but neither do I have to play every hand that's dealt.  "You've
got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em.  Know when to walk
away..."

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     _>__     __|_     _|__     _>__     ___|     03/08
 _|__     _>__     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     03/09
 __<_     _>__     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     03/10
 _<__     _|__     _|__     _|__     <___     ___|     03/11
 __<_     _|__     __|_     _<__     _<__     ___<     03/14

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  03/14/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Editing is a rewording activity.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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