Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Mar 09 2005 05:34 pm

Content-type: text/plain

3/1/05:  "Does it have the gumption to take a stand in new high
territory and hold it?  Personally, I remain to be convinced."

One of the dangers in tracking the market "with gun and camera" is when
one gets a few calls pretty close to right, one begins to believe it.
My market action analysis led me to disbelieve the recent rallies in
prices were "going anywhere".  And today prices fell back below the 1214
resistance line pencilled on my chart.  The change was about 90% of the
way to being significant, and volume increased to +8% above average.  So
there was some determined selling, but it was a little less than a rout;
what I call a "Distribution" day.  Still the ratio of Advancing to
Declining stocks was 1:4, so the sell-off was broad-based.

I'm just having trouble convincing myself the rally since mid-january is
Bullish.  It looks to me more like profit-taking.  So I wouldn't be too
panicked about money burning a hole in my pocket.  Keep investing, but
be mindful of your strategy and tactics, though I think a Value style is
most appropriate.  Do it in a reasoned, conservative manner.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     <___     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___<     03/03
 __>_     _|__     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___|     03/04
 __>_     _>__     __|_     _|__     __>_     ___|     03/07
 __>_     _>__     __|_     _|__     __>_     ___|     03/07
 _>__     _>__     __|_     _|__     _>__     ___|     03/08
 _|__     _>__     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     03/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  02/24/05 S&P:    1200
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... I got my act together and forgot where I put it!
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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