Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Mar 03 2005 05:42 pm

Content-type: text/plain

If your medical monitor were as "flat line" as today's market, we'd be
remembering you fondly.  Crude saw $55/bbl again.  Some decent economic
and retail sales numbers came out, but that's been anticipated for
months and built into these prices.  In the end, prices changed less
than half a point, and volume was up slightly to +2% above average.

The key to this action is my volatility mini-chart below.  It just shows
that we've been bouncing along under last December's 1214 high.  The
Street has anticipated the current economic conditions, but as it looks
out 6-9 months what does it see?  The Fed continuing to raise short-term
interest rates.  The Federal deficit spending putting continuing
pressure on intermediate and longer term interest rates, and decreasing
our "credit score".  The liklihood foreign central banks, and investors
in general, will not be so willing to buy our debt.  Continuing mid-east
commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq, and troubles with militants
threatening stability there as well as Israel/Palestine.  Also oil
supplies threatened and prices continuing to make new highs.  And that's
just a few of the problems.  There's no easy money in prospect, and
considerable risk.  What I'd be wary of is powerful investors deciding
they have to make money by shorting and driving prices down.

At least that's what I see.  Maybe your view is different.  Regardless,
what we need to do is keep aware of developments and be prepared to make
adjustments to our strategy and tactics.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _<__     __|_     _|__     __>_     ___<     02/25
 _>__     _<__     __|_     __|_     _>__     ___<     02/28
 __>_     <___     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___<     03/01
 _|__     <___     __|_     _>__     _|__     ___<     03/02
 __|_     <___     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___<     03/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  02/24/05 S&P:    1200
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... A tisket, a tasket, a condom or a casket?!?
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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