Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Feb 28 2005 05:03 pm

Content-type: text/plain

"Will you still love me, tomorrow?"  No, not the lyrics from a
girl-group's gold record of the 70's, but the Street's affections for
the market.  But then, that certainly should come as no surprize to you,
it's been that way all year.  Today some economic numbers were released
that indicated this wasn't Candide's "best of all possible worlds", so
the Street reversed from Friday's manic enthusiasm and went into one of
its depressive moods.  And that was almost predictable, since Friday's
high prices came on below average volume.

Stocks closed down, in spite of an aborted afternoon rally, on heavy
volume, +15% above average.  The combination was enough for my formula
to call it a "Distribution" day.

In the past week two days have been on above average volume, +12% &
+15%, and both have been on heavy selling days, i.e. prices falling.
It's the old Supply & Demand Equation in action.

Too many investors and analysts miss the big picture when they try to
figure out what's going on.  They want something they can make money on
NOW!  Anybody who hasn't figured out yet that the Street can't make up
its mind, that there ISN'T a trend to the market now, isn't really
trying or is wedded to their preconceptions.  Don't do that!  Figure out
what to do in a sideways market--it's not as though we haven't seen
these before, or won't later.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 <___     __<_     _|__     __|_     <___     ___|     02/22
 __<_     _<__     _|__     _|__     _<__     ___|     02/23
 __<_     _<__     __|_     _|__     _<__     ___|     02/24
 __|_     _<__     __|_     _|__     __>_     ___<     02/25
 _>__     _<__     __|_     __|_     _>__     ___<     02/28

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  02/24/05 S&P:    1200
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Recursion: See "recursion".
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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