Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Feb 24 2005 06:17 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices were flat until mid-afternoon then, reportedly because closing
oil prices fell in some profit-taking, they staged a nice little rally,
closing at or near their highs.  However, volume increased only a
little, still -3% below average.

This rally caused my timing signal to reverse, popping a BUY signal.  I
tend to ignore these timing signals when they come very close to each
other.  In my opinion, the real value of "timing signals" isn't to
direct our investing decisions, but to alert us to pay attention, things
may be changing.

Now this is strictly opinion and speculation on my part, and you've
probably heard some of this before.  I think the "Gay 90's Bubble"
sucked a lot of "newbies" from the public into the market with an
apparent promise of easy money.  But few really learned from history.
No investor had experienced a major Bear Market like 1929.  No, 1987
doesn't count--it was a shock, but it was all over too quickly.  Few
were prepared for the second greatest Bear Market.  I don't think many
investors understood 2003 was little more than a natural "reflex"
rebound from a seriously pessimistic and over-sold market.  Now, with
many reliable economic analysts, e.g. the Fed, assures us the economy is
recovering at a modest pace from the effects that caused the Bear
Market, it appears to me that 2004, 2005 and the near future are much
more likely to resemble the traditional market.  I expect there's going
to be a strong push and pull by investors, public and professional, that
don't know what that is either.  They're going to be expecting the easy
money and fearing the return of the Bear.  They're going to be "dissing"
a lot of good stocks and companies, "throwing the baby out with the bath
water."  I think this is likely to cause a lot of volatility in a
modestly growing market.  I think the way to take advantage of that is a
"value investing" strategy, whether in mutual funds or as an active
investor.  Remember, you heard it here.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     __>_     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___>     02/17
 __<_     __>_     __|_     __<_     _<__     ___>     02/18
 <___     __<_     _|__     __|_     <___     ___|     02/22
 __<_     _<__     _|__     _|__     _<__     ___|     02/23
 __<_     _<__     __|_     _|__     _<__     ___|     02/24

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  02/24/05 S&P:    1200
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Och.... is it dead yet, laddie?
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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