Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Feb 23 2005 05:25 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market tried to recover some today.  Prices were up all day, but
less than 40% of yesterday's losses.  Volume fell from +12% above
average to -4% below average, so buyers weren't flocking back.

Yes, oil prices corrected a bit, and the CPI showed inflation is still
subdued.  But we can't let these "reasons" distract us from the facts.
The value of our portfolio is dependent on the prices of stocks--not oil
prices, not the CPI.

We need to pay attention to stock prices, first and foremost.  Prices
represent the final judgement of investors on the value of the market.
It's also important to pay attention to investors' willingness to commit
money to the market, or remove it.  That we have to infer from trading
volume.  The clear distinction to remember, this is actual data!  Any
opinions have been reduced to measurable, unambiguous actions.

All the "analysis" we hear about how everything else is bound to
influence the market is no more than the purveyors of investments and
investment services doing their marketing to us, trying to influence our
behavior in ways that will profit them.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     __>_     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___>     02/16
 _|__     __>_     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___>     02/17
 __<_     __>_     __|_     __<_     _<__     ___>     02/18
 <___     __<_     _|__     __|_     <___     ___|     02/22
 __<_     _<__     _|__     _|__     _<__     ___|     02/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  02/22/05 S&P:    1184
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -5

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Real men aren't afraid to have a woman on top
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---
 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

.