Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Feb 15 2005 05:23 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Just after 10AM the market staged a nice 6pt rally and then levelled off.
Around 1PM apparently the scuttlebutt started that one of the the major
market-making houses had "made a mistake", and prices quickly corrected.

In the mix somewhere was the release of Commerce Department data that
January's retail sales fell -.3%.  That's bad news?  No that's good
news, expectations were for -.5%.  Car sales were off.  Bad news?  No,
good news, because factoring that out of the composite numbers, ex-car
sales retail rose +.6%, which was in line with expectations.

"Crunch-o-matic!  It slices.  It dices.  Just put in your numbers, slice
and dice them a few times, and you're sure to come up with some number
you like."

Well, Greenspan speaks tomorrow, and that will settle the Street's
indecision.  But expect them to be perverse about it.  If Greenspan is
in good spirits the Street is likely to take that as bad news, because
it presages more interest rate cuts.  Hey guys!  There WILL be more
interest rate hikes!

Anyway, prices closed up modestly, and volume rose to -2% below average.
I don't know what to make of that volume, probably mostly due to the
"mistake".

Prices are also approaching the year-end highs at 1214.  That may well
prove to be a resistance level with this ambivalent attitude.
Technicians will be watching, and whatever happens then will likely
influence the market in the near term.  As I warned some months ago,
there's lots of precedent for early spring being a very tough row to
hoe.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _>__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___>     02/09
 __<_     _>__     __|_     _>__     __<_     ___>     02/10
 __|_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __<_     ___>     02/11
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___>     02/14
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___>     02/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  02/01/05 S&P:    1189
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Look on every exit as being an entrance somewhere else.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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