Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Feb 11 2005 05:09 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Dell's guidance for this year was pessimistic.  That's possibly the
reason the market was underwater the first half of the morning.  But
about mid-morning it staged an nice rally, then turned it off and went
flat for the rest of the day.  Volume was just barely above average.

Now that's curious!  This was obviously different than normal up-down
volatility.  It was like an edict came down, "The S&P is worth 1205, no
more and no less."

The sort of thing I would expect to cause that would be something like a
change in interest rates.  There are value-metric models based on
fundamental economic parameters, e.g. interest rates, the S&P composite
dividend, etc., that the Street uses for its asset allocation.  If
something like that changed, it would take about a heartbeat for the
Street to adjust stock prices.

I don't know what caused this, or if it will continue, but I'll be
paying attention to any explanations.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     _>__     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___>     02/07
 __>_     _>__     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___>     02/08
 _|__     _>__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___>     02/09
 __<_     _>__     __|_     _>__     __<_     ___>     02/10
 __|_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __<_     ___>     02/11

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  02/01/05 S&P:    1189
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... The haves and have-nots come from the dos and do-nots.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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