Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Feb 01 2005 05:24 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Again the market performed pretty well.  Prices made a steady march
upward during the morning, and that seems to indicate more deliberation
to the movement than the immediate "gap up" jump of yesterday, to me.
There was minor fluctuation in the afternoon, but basically prices held
their gains.  Volume sank just a bit, but was still +19% above average.

Volatility has been low, so it now takes only 13.5pts price change to be
significant, so today's 9pts was more than half way.  More than half way
and more than 10% above average volume in my book means the buyers were
really accumulating stock today.  And as you can see below, the momentum
has swung to the positive side, even if only moderately so, so my timing
signal says "Buy!".

That's the first one in a couple weeks, so I might give it the benefit
of doubt--but for a few days I'd be prepared for a reversal.  After all,
we saw it change its mind 9 times in 10 days last month.  So I wouldn't
feel obligated to necessarily buy at the open tomorrow.  The way signals
are supposed to be used though, one follows the signal when it is
given--that's the optimum point of action, supposedly.  But if I did,
I'd also have tight stops.  I would let it all go slip-sliding away into
losses.

The Oscillator is moderately positive and trending up.  We've climbed
above the important 50-day Moving Average.  That's the sort of
confirmation we want to see.  Still, I wouldn't mind seeing another
"retest" of that 1160-1165 area, just to build confidence that there is
some "technical support" at that level.

Longer term I'm still "grumpy".  We learned today BellSouth plans to lay
off 13,000 people in this AT&T merger.  Good for them, perhaps, but not
so good for the economy if those people can't be rapidly employed.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __>_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/26
 __>_     _|__     _<__     __|_     _>__     ___|     01/27
 _>__     _<__     _<__     __>_     _>__     ___|     01/28
 __>_     _<__     _|__     ___|     __>_     ___|     01/31
 __>_     _<__     __|_     __|_     __>_     ___|     02/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  02/01/05 S&P:    1189
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Objects under T-Shirt are larger than they appear.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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