Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Jan 31 2005 04:53 pm

Content-type: text/plain

"What a difference a day makes..."  Alright, it was a weekend.  But oil
prices settled down with the completion of the Iraqi elections, and the
market jumped about 10pts higher at the open--pretty much staying there
all day.  Volume rose to +21% above average, and that combines to be an
Accumulation Day in my book.  Instead of being interested in selling,
the Street wanted to buy.  It just proves: good or bad, what the Street
hates is uncertainty.

On the other hand (you knew that was coming, didn't you?), the month of
January was down.  Those who believe in "the January Effect" might be a
little more willing to sell until they see much more positive Q1 results
in a few months.  And this weekend OPEC seemed to have been toying with
the idea, "We raised prices to $50/bbl and it wasn't catastrophic.  Now
the consumer has seen it once, we can do it again and they won't be so
shocked."  Well, it might have been catastrophic for fixed-income
consumers.  (Note to self: must keep retirement funds protected from
inflation, i.e. invested in inflatable assets.)  And frankly, although
the worst fears about the Iraqi elections weren't realized, it remains
to be seen what the outcome is.

Even in today's reaction, nothing seemed to move the market after the
initial bounce.  SBC wants to swallow AT&T.  Does anybody remember the
"Baby Bells"?  Are there any left that SBC hasn't eaten?  So what did we
gain from deregulation, if we're back to one behemoth phone company and
a couple independent midgets picking up the crumbs?  The old monopoly
with no restrictions?  Like the airline deregulation has been such a
sparkling success.  Anybody wanna buy some airline stock?

If the Bulls have the courage of their convictions, that 1164 could
begin to look like one of these fabled "re-test" formations.  I'll wait
and see.  February & March have been a couple of tough months in the
past.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/25
 __|_     __>_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/26
 __>_     _|__     _<__     __|_     _>__     ___|     01/27
 _>__     _<__     _<__     __>_     _>__     ___|     01/28
 __>_     _<__     _|__     ___|     __>_     ___|     01/31

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/19/05 S&P:    1185
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -11

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... SYSOP (n): the person laughing as you type.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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