Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Jan 28 2005 05:35 pm

Content-type: text/plain

GDP numbers for the 4th Quarter came out about mid-morning and dropped
the market nearly 10pts.  Not even the M&A and earnings news could turn
it around.  It recovered a bit in the last hour.  Volume was up to +14%
above average.

I suspect the Street was suspecting something like this, which explains
why they're selling some of their holdings.

Taken as a group investors often seem to resemble someone with bipolar
disorder who habtually forgets to take his lithium.  When things seem to
be good they run prices up, expecting perfection.  Those expectations
are rarely realistic, or come true.  When reality strikes they don't
really know what is realistic, so they sell too much, too readily,
driving prices down rapidly.

My point is: it doesn't matter what's true, or whether we're "Bullish on
America" as Merrill-Lynch says.  It isn't about us, our analysis or even
our patriotism.  We need deal with these fluctuations in the market.
Even if we are "Bullish on America", we have to be ready to sell and
protect ourselves.  Rule 1: Don't lose big.  Rule 2: Don't forget Rule
1.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/24
 __|_     __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/25
 __|_     __>_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/26
 __>_     _|__     _<__     __|_     _>__     ___|     01/27
 _>__     _<__     _<__     __>_     _>__     ___|     01/28

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/19/05 S&P:    1185
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -11

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... That was Zen, this is Tao.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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