Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Jan 26 2005 05:38 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market did very well today.  Prices rapidly staked out a level, and
although there was a little sag during mid-day, they held it.  Volume
increased to +17% above average, and the Advance:Decline ratio was
better than 2:1 so the advance was broad-based.

You may remember I said I hoped the 1160 level from a year ago might act
as a support level.  I could be wrong, but I'd settle for Monday's 1164.

In my professional career as a programmer and system manager I lived by
the rule:  "It'd be nice, but it's not necessary that you never make a
mistake.  What's necessary is that you have a way to recover in place.
You WILL make a mistake, PLAN ON IT!"  That's what the 7% Solution is
all about.  Everybody makes mistakes.  Even people you'd think
shouldn't.

Microsoft has announced that in a few months they won't provide patches
and updates for "pirated" copies of Windows.  Is that really a good
idea?  Presumably Microsoft expects to sell more copies of Windows and
benefit from increased profits.  Would it even work?  How important are
the patches to the average end-user?  Is _your_ copy of Windows
thoroughly patched?  Would anybody likely to pirate Windows actually buy
and register a legit copy for the benefit of receiving the patches?  Who
is better off with unpatched and hacked versions of Windows loose in the
world?  Microsoft will still get bad press for the results of what these
vulerable systems do, spreading spam and viruses, participating in
"zombie networks".  Piracy is a problem, but I think this is completely
wrong-headed approach to the problem.

We often see things like this in the market as well.  It's said, "The
Market is always right."  That's only true in the sense that if we get
cross-wise to the market, we'll pay.  But everybody makes mistakes--plan
on it!  When the market IS wrong, our strategies have to wait for it to
come to us.  We don't make money arguing with it, but by being at the
right place at the right time.

Err, your copy of Windows IS up to date with all it's patches, isn't it?
If it's Windows/XP you really DO need Service Pack 2!

In case you missed my announcement, my "Tracking the Market" page has
been updated.  Pick one of the URL's below.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _|__     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/20
 _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/21
 _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/24
 __|_     __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/25
 __|_     __>_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/26

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/19/05 S&P:    1185
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -11

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... May you find the light and walk the mountain tops.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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