Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Jan 21 2005 05:51 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Early today there was some to and fro as some good earnings results were
announced.  But in the afternoon realism prevailed.  Prices fell again
on heavy volume, +16% above average.  It was another "Distribution" day.

The current level of significance for price change now is 13.5pts.  A
couple years ago when there was more volatility, it ran around 25pts.
Today's 7pt drop was over half way.

I want to see both more change in prices than is just normal "noise",
and also heavier volume than normal ranges.  When prices are falling but
investors are determinedly selling anyway, they're telling us they don't
want to be stock HOLDERS.  When prices are up, and investors willingly
pay higher prices to buy more stock than usual, they must be expecting
profits ahead.  They may be wrong, but we always assume that!  By
investors I'm talking about the big professional money managers who can
trade enough stock in a day to make a noticable difference.

The impression I got of early trading was "grasping at straws".  Some
investors who haven't gotten over the 90's were trying to swim against
the tide on the basis of individual bits of good news.  The knife is
falling--don't try to catch it.

In case you missed my announcement, my "Tracking the Market" page has
been updated.  Pick one of the URL's below.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _>__     _|__     _<__     _>__     ___<     01/14
 __|_     _|__     __|_     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/18
 _|__     _|__     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/19
 _|__     _|__     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/20
 _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     ___|     01/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/19/05 S&P:    1185
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -11

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Only the survivors write histories.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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