Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Jan 14 2005 03:47 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Hooray!  Finally a day when my timing signal didn't reverse itself!
But it was a near thing.  I was worried I'd make an example of myself
and my caution about "just when you think you have the market wired-in."
Apparently the Street took a rather myopic view of the release of the
wholesale PPI, Producer Price Index, being up a lot because energy was
down a lot.  The Street naively seems to have interpretted the data much
more positively than is warranted, in my view.  I think that was much
more about speculators squeezing the spot market and ripping off some
quick profits.  They've got us primed now, thinking that the world isn't
going to end with $50/bbl oil.  Excuse me?  Look at what it DID DO to
the PPI before.

At the close prices were up half-way to relevancy on their own, about
high enough that my formula MIGHT have considered it an "Accumulation"
day, except that volume sank to -6% below average.  If the economy is so
good, where were the buyers?  Of course, the more cautious investors
sold more heavily yesterday but held today, forcing such buying as there
was to bid stocks up.  I think perhaps they took the PPI numbers and the
fact that we were (and still are) below the important 50-day moving
average as a sign it was safe to "bottom-fish".

I ain't changing my skeptical viewpoint!  Even if there is a valid
up-trend, of which I'm not convinced, I think many of the professional
investors would feel better if there was some sort of "technical
support" under these prices.  I think they're more likely to "take the
money and run" until they have something like that to buoy their
confidence.  After all, we heard lots of predictions at New Year's of
single digit gains in the market for the year.  If that's all, why take
the risk now?

In case you missed my announcement, my "Tracking the Market" page has
been updated.  Pick one of the URL's below.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___<     01/10
 _|__     _|__     _|__     __>_     |___     ___<     01/11
 __|_     _>__     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___<     01/12
 _<__     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     01/13
 __<_     _>__     _|__     _<__     _>__     ___<     01/14

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/13/05 S&P:    1177
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -10

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... I have a bad feeling about this.....
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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