Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Jan 12 2005 04:04 pm

Content-type: text/plain

This morning the market took a dive, off a little under 10pts.  So it
wasn't exactly insignificant, and incremental volume was higher than
average.  But it climbed back to the line by noon.  There it stuck until
a half-hour before the close when it staged a sharp little rally.
Conventional wisdom says it's the big Street players that do most of the
late-session trading, squaring their orders.  So maybe they heard
something.  Closing volume was up to +8% above average.

Do you want to know that my timing signal continued to dither?  As you
can see below, the Momentum chart shows a flat trend, and it keeps
swapping sides.  Now it says Buy.  Until it shows either an up, ">", or
down, "<", trend, I think we can safely ignore it.  As you can also see
below, the Oscillator is also on the negative side.  So if there's any
bias to the momentum, I'd say it was downward.

I think what's going on is, in spite of growth pronouncements from some
sides, the Street isn't seeing easy money ahead.  The market has fallen
to where it's just bouncing on top of the 50-day Moving Average, which
is widely followed on the Street as a short-term trend indicator.  If
the market fell below the 50-day, that would be taken as a negative
indicator.  Apparently the Street is just positive enough to see this as
a bargain-hunting level, so its buying hasn't let prices sink below the
average for the past couple days.  So this is one of those "fish or cut
bait" decision times.

In case you missed my announcement, my "Tracking the Market" page has
been updated.  Pick one of the URL's below.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _<__     __|_     __>_     <___     ___<     01/06
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __>_     <___     ___<     01/07
 __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___<     01/10
 _|__     _|__     _|__     __>_     |___     ___<     01/11
 __|_     _>__     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___<     01/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  01/12/05 S&P:    1187
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Why is Brassiere singluar and Panties plural???
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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