Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Jan 11 2005 03:55 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Mindful that I interpretted yesterday's action as weak, in spite of the
higher prices, I felt pretty smug this morning to hear all the major
indices were down.  Self-satisfaction is a dangerous emotion for
investors.  When one gets thinking one has this market "wired-in", one
is about to demonstrate the error of one's ways by doing something
foolish.

In any event, the market WAS down today, volume was just +3% above
average, so my dithering timing signal reversed itself yet again, for
the fifth straight day.

That's the problem with these things--if you've got a signal, are you
going to believe it?  And if not, why bother?  No one signal is good
enough, and no strictly numerical method is a match for the shifting
sands on the Street.  Human intellect can sometimes be pretty good about
integrating all the varied data.  I'm still looking at the soft under-
belly of this economy, not reported in the Administration's statistics.
Alcoa and AMD's reports today are just symptoms of a fragility to this
economic growth, such as it is.  My investing strategy is decidedly
conservative, and it's staying that way.

In case you missed my announcement, my "Tracking the Market" page has
been updated.  Pick one of the URL's below.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     _|__     ___|     <___     ___|     01/05
 __<_     _<__     __|_     __>_     <___     ___<     01/06
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __>_     <___     ___<     01/07
 __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___<     01/10
 _|__     _|__     _|__     __>_     |___     ___<     01/11

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/11/05 S&P:    1183
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Refuse novocain - transcend dental medication.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

---
 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

.