Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Jan 10 2005 06:02 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market got off to a good start this morning, held, even added to its
early gains, until an hour before the close.  Then it fell prey to a
sharp sell-off on heavy volume.  It did manage a modestly higher close,
so my dithering timing signal reversed itself for the fourth straight
day.  It says Buy, if anybody cares.  Volume was slightly lower, only
+4% above average.

The key was the early gains weren't accompanied by high volume, showing
enthuiastic buyers.  Or more correctly, buyers weren't demanding lots of
stock at market prices.  But the afternoon's falling prices brought out
lot's of eager sellers.  Or said the other way, excess stock coming to
market exceeded the demand, causing prices to fall.  So both tell the
same story, the market is weak--even if prices closed higher.

I was looking at an intraday S&P500 chart, but I also use the daily
closing numbers for my charts and analysis.  The same Law of Supply and
Demand works for individual stocks.  If you're an investor in stocks you
should also be using this kind of analysis as part of your tactics for
buying and selling.  Sure, we know the Street can change its direction
on a dime, but by watching the relationship between price and volume we
can make pretty good judgements whether there's any enthusiasm for the
stock, and whether it's for buying or selling.  What you do with that
information depends on your overall strategy and your position in the
moment.

In case you missed my announcement, my "Tracking the Market" page has
been updated.  Pick one of the URL's below.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 <___     _|__     __|_     ___<     <___     ___|     01/04
 _<__     _|__     _|__     ___|     <___     ___|     01/05
 __<_     _<__     __|_     __>_     <___     ___<     01/06
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __>_     <___     ___<     01/07
 __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___<     01/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  01/08/05 S&P:    1190
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Growing old is mandatory; growing up is optional
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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