Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Jan 07 2005 05:21 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Once again my timing signal reversed itself, saying "Sell" again.
Prices fell slightly, though volume shrank to +5% above average.  An
intra-day chart showed a mid-morning correction, but it also showed
heavy volume.  That reveals a bearish bias.

I heard an analysts point out that Delta's lowering prices can be a
helpful thing for Delta, providing other airlines don't follow suit.
But if they did, and they are, then it was bad for them all, especially
the ones in trouble like Delta.  Then they all get into a WalMart "race
to the bottom."  Has anybody noticed a contrary trend, that the high-end
retailers did very well this Xmas season?

This idea that it's necessary to be the lowest cost business to be
successful, widespread on the Street and in the board rooms, is a
"meme".  There are many others at work these days.  If you're not
familiar with the meme concept, I think it's a good thing to learn
about.  Memes can be very strong.  As investors, it isn't profitable to
try to fight against them.  It is profitable to recognize them for what
they are, so we can objectively observe their progress and be ready to
abandon them, or even take a contrary position when the meme begins to
be rejected.

In case you missed my announcement, my "Tracking the Market" page has
been updated.  Pick one of the URL's below.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     __|_     __<_     _<__     ___|     01/03
 <___     _|__     __|_     ___<     <___     ___|     01/04
 _<__     _|__     _|__     ___|     <___     ___|     01/05
 __<_     _<__     __|_     __>_     <___     ___<     01/06
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __>_     <___     ___<     01/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/07/05 S&P:    1186
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -2

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Of Course I'm Sane.  The Voices Said So....
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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