Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Jan 04 2005 05:31 pm

Content-type: text/plain

If we just missed yesterday, there was no doubt today.  Prices fell just
as much, and volume swelled to +25% above average.  With room to spare,
that makes it a "Distribution" day in my book!  Sellers owned the day.

Maybe I didn't talk much about it here, but I did mention on my website
"Tracking the Market" page that the price strength this December was not
confirmed by the Oscillator.  You can go there to see the chart.  In any
event, you know I haven't been enthusiastic about a Santa Claus Rally.

It may feel nice, but we all know the market can't go up all the time.
The market is telling us prices are "extended".  Technically, I'd say
we're "working without a net"--there no significant "support" level I'd
trust under these prices.  So even if I don't believe technical
formations CONTROL the market, if prices dropped back to the 1160 level
or so, the highs from early last year, then bounced off, that would
create the sort of "support" that could reassure investors.

In case you missed my announcement, my "Tracking the Market" page has
been updated.  Pick one of the URL's below.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _|__     __|_     <___     __|_     ___|     12/29
 __|_     _|__     __|_     <___     __|_     ___|     12/30
 _|__     _|__     __|_     <___     __>_     ___|     12/31
 _<__     _|__     __|_     __<_     _<__     ___|     01/03
 <___     _|__     __|_     ___<     <___     ___|     01/04

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Day-o...Day-ay-ay-o, Daylight come and me want go home.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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