Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Dec 28 2004 07:20 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Nice day in the market, prices jumped at the open, and increased at a
more modest pace all day.  Presumably that was due to new consumer
condifence numbers from the Conference Board released today.  The
Advance:Decline ratio was about 3:1.  Of course, the fly in the ointment
is volume being down -31% below average.

I'll be trying to get my charts and summarized commentary updated on or
shortly after New Year's Day.  See the links to my website below.

Yesterday I mentioned the year's Declining Channel Formation.  You'll be
able to see what I was talking about.  I hope you'll be able to see what
I was talking about; that telling investors "the market is up 14% just
since August" is the worst sort of selective, biased "analyis".  What
they're assuming is one would somehow magically be able to buy at the
exact bottoms and sell at the exact tops--WAY, months, after the turn is
clear on the charts.  Never let that sort of thinking grab ahold of you!
Nobody can do that reliably.  What have you heard from Joe Granville
lately?  How about Elaine Garzarelli?

I watch the market closer than most on Main Street.  My timing signal
signaled the last Buy at the end of October (see below) and that's after
it Sold and Bought back again in September, only to Sell two weeks
before this last Buy in October.  It was sometime in November when
enough of my charts were showing a change in the trend that I believed
it.  There certainly were no clear signals that one should have bought,
known to buy, in August--unless you're a regular Dollar Cost Averager.

If you can catch the changes in the trend when the become apparent, and
that's usually well after one might judge the beginning much later, and
you can control your losses, then you will be a remarkably successful
investor.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     ___|     12/21
 __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     ___|     12/22
 __>_     _|__     __|_     <___     __>_     ___|     12/23
 _|__     _>__     __|_     <___     _|__     ___|     12/27
 __|_     _|__     __|_     <___     __|_     ___|     12/28

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... "Dittoheads blame media for ills of America." 
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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