Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Dec 27 2004 04:54 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Volume today was even lower than last time, -37% below average.  So it
doesn't much matter what prices did, they sank modestly throughout the
day.  Don't expect much from this week.

Low volume, as I've said so many times before, tends to exaggerated
volatility if there is a minor imbalance in orders.  That's one reason
it isn't necessarily a good idea to wait for this week to do your
tax-loss selling, along with the crowd.

One other thing:  Be careful what you believe from the talking heads
"analyzing" the past year.  If they talk about the positive movement of
the market since early August when it was about 1065, tune 'em out.  BS!
They're just trying to sell you.  Back then nobody was shouting "BUY the
Market!  We're going UP from here!"  At that time the defining trend was
the Declining Channel.  That's when the market was so negative we
actually dipped below the lower "support line" twice.  But as long as we
basically stayed between the lower support line and the upper resistance
line, that Channel defined the market as it had since January.  That
gave it credibility and "strength".  It wasn't until we broke through
the upper resistance line for good with a couple of "Accumulation Days"
in a row, in early November around 1160, that the negative Declining
Channel formation was broken, and we could begin to think of a change in
trend.

These technical formations aren't magical influences, but they ARE what
many traders on the Street pay attention to.  They tend to create self-
fulfilling prophecies.  So if we can read them right, the way those
traders do, then we can have some idea what they may be thinking, what
they may be doing.  That's what my analysis of "Market Action" is all
about, trying to figure out what is really happening.  How that factors
into our own individual investing strategy and tactics is up to each of
us to decide--we're all on different paths.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _|__     __|_     _|__     _<__     ___|     12/20
 __<_     _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     ___|     12/21
 __|_     _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     ___|     12/22
 __>_     _|__     __|_     <___     __>_     ___|     12/23
 _|__     _>__     __|_     <___     _|__     ___|     12/27

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

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