Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Dec 21 2004 04:18 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market seemed very positive today.  Prices were up nicely all day,
with not even minor corrections.  The fly in the ointment was volume,
just barely, but below average volume.  That means the surging prices
weren't attracting buyers--and THAT should give you pause.  As you can
see below, my six indicators and their trends are not particularly
encouraging.

It seems to me that if we get a Santa Claus rally, this would be a great
time to "sell into strength".  Take what you can from the losers in your
portfolio and write off the loses against any gains on this year's
taxes.

What I wouldn't do is believe secondary indicators of a "rosey scenario".
I want to see is how the market reacts to a new year.  It's not that I'd
believe the "January Effect" indicator, but I want to see how the Street
reacts to facing a whole new year ahead of it.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _>__     __|_     __|_     __>_     ___<     12/15
 _>__     _>__     __|_     ___|     __>_     ___<     12/16
 _<__     _>__     __|_     ___|     __|_     ___<     12/17
 __<_     _|__     __|_     _|__     _<__     ___|     12/20
 __<_     _|__     __|_     _|__     __|_     ___|     12/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Hot water heaters:  hot water needs heating?
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