Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Dec 17 2004 06:11 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Gangway!  Today crude rose again on prospects of cold weather and Pfizer
released data that its cox-2 inhibitor Celebrex might also have
dangerous side-effects.  Prices never saw black numbers, closing off
9pts, and volume rose to 22% above average.  My formula doesn't react to
every twitch of the market, but it calls that a "Distribution Day" when
Sellers are jumping ship.

Who was it that decided we had to rush through the approval process to
get drugs to market?  Is that relevant to changing other importnt public
policy processes, like say Social Security?

I've been recommending conservative portfolio allocations.  Conservative
DOESN'T mean making a big, reactionary change into bonds.  As Greenspan
joked a few weeks ago, anybody investing in bonds now "is desireous of
losing money."

When I suggest conservatism in your portfolio strategies, let me be
clear.  What I'm talking about is making controlled, cautious, moderate
changes to your portfolio.  Don't make big bets, take big risks, that
you know what's going to happen in the future.  When I think I detect a
significant change in the direction of the market, you've often read my
recommendation to make your changes by halves or thirds.

So it's conservative with a SMALL "c"!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     |___     __|_     _<__     _>__     ___<     12/13
 __>_     >___     __|_     __|_     __>_     ___<     12/14
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __|_     __>_     ___<     12/15
 _>__     _>__     __|_     ___|     __>_     ___<     12/16
 _<__     _>__     __|_     ___|     __|_     ___<     12/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... "Energize!" said Picard and the pink bunny appeared...
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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