Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Dec 13 2004 05:30 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market was up all day, though through mid-day it resembled a sway-
backed horse.  We're knocking on the door of 1200.  I suggested that
would be good place to close the year above, lest Main Street be
discouraged.  But volume fell slightly, still -3% below average.  That's
not good news for the Bulls.

Reputedly, the reason was Oracle launched it's take over of PeopleSoft.
Coors & Molson are also in the midst of a merger.  That creates interest
in M&A (mergers & acquisitions) activity, which currently is seen as a
good thing.  Is it really?

Yes, I understand there is a broad assumption on the Street and in Board
Rooms that in this increasingly globally internationalized business and
trade environment only behemoths will be able to compete and survive.
Everybody wants to be big, and monopolistic isn't bad if it enables you
to stand securely on the world stage.

You've heard about the success of "contrarian investing".  That's what
this is about.  Take a contrary position, not that it's bad, but that
it's a good thing to lift the skirts of these shibboleths and examine
their foundations.

Is bigger better?  Is it necessary?  Does a company have to be big to
survive and be profitable?  Is national monopoly irrelevant, even a
necessity for international competition?  Monopolistic tendencies have
been common in commerce.  Is it different this time?

It's hard work answering those questions, the answers aren't obvious and
they may keep shifting around.  But that's the work of successful
investors.  Don't be part of the herd.  Herds can be stampeded.  Near my
Dad's hometown there's a place called "Head Smashed-In Buffalo Jump"
where herds were stampeded off a cliff.
 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     <___     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     12/07
 __<_     <___     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     12/08
 __<_     <___     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___<     12/09
 _|__     <___     __|_     _<__     _|__     ___<     12/10
 __>_     |___     __|_     _<__     _>__     ___<     12/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Chemists wash their hands BEFORE using the bathroom.
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