Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Dec 02 2004 03:33 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Today, although crude continued its slide to $43.50/bbl, the market was
no longer excited.  Prices were down, up, and mostly but modestly down,
while volume stayed about the same, +18% above average.  The Advance:
Decline ratio was decidedly more negative 3:5.  So I expect this was a
little profit taking, but carefully done so as not to depress prices.

I'm still a little skeptical of the Bulls' devotion to this market.
They've got to do better than these occasional one day spikes to
convince me.  There are a lot of distractions this month.  But in my
view, if they can't close out the year above 1200, they're going to lose
the confidence of Main Street.  That's still a single-digit gain for the
entire year!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __<_     __>_     <___     __>_     ___>     11/26
 _|__     __<_     __>_     _<__     __|_     ___>     11/29
 _<__     _<__     __>_     __<_     _|__     ___>     11/30
 ___|     _<__     __>_     __<_     __<_     ___>     12/01
 _|__     _<__     __>_     __|_     __<_     ___>     12/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Of course, I could be wrong ..... Naaah!
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